Can Danny?

While it's early to tell, right now Chad Ford, just in his NBA lottery, is predicting 8 of the top 14 picks to be freshman: Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, Brendan Wright, Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young, Chase Buddinger, Darrell Arthur, and Brook Lopez. So what did the one year get for these young men? Kevin Durant was helped the most as people got to see just how good he really is. He's been able to leapfrog Greg Oden on many people's draft boards. Oden, who would have been the consensus #1 in last year's draft, injured his hand and has possibliy lost the #1 pick. The injury has forced him to work on his off-hand but I don't think there's been too much improvement that we wouldn't have seen had he been on the Raptors this year. Both Oden and Durant were men amongst boys and obviously were ready to start their NBA careers.

The rest of the youngsters probably won't fare much better than the average straight from high schoolers did in their second year. Brandan Wright has put on ten pounds but is still needs to work on his game. Likely the third pick in the draft, he's unlikely to be ready to deliver from day 1. Spencer Hawes has a more developed game but also has issues with athleticism that aren't going away no matter how many credits he took this semester. Neither he, Brook Lopez, nor Hasheem Thabeet have really shown enough to make you think they are sure-fire pros. Then again, nobody's pointing at their flaws and saying they aren't potential lotto picks so it might be best to come out now before getting exposed. Chase Buddinger, Darrell Arthur, and Thad Young have been solid and at times, disappointing. Arthur is more ready than originally thought but still probably won't be ready for minutes in the NBA on opening night. The one year in college has helped scouts get more familiar with the frosh but whether they can make it in the pros or not is still as big of a crap shoot as before.

Another possible monkey-wrench in this draft is at point guard. D.J. Augustin has declared that he won't be declaring for the draft, but it's hard to argue against him leaving school. More strength could always help but Augustin is already being called a lottery pick by some and in a draft that seems void of point prospects aside from Acie Law it would make sense to come out this year rather than wait a year when point guards OJ Mayo and Derrick Rose are being touted as two of the top five picks. If Augustin stay in Austin, someone else (Conley, Crittenton, Lawson) might leave before being "ready" so they can strike while the iron's hot. While staying in could help, the risks: injury, coming out in a PG loaded draft, or becoming the next Chris Thomas (supposed lotto pick who tanked after not leaving school his sophomore year) are daunting.

The big loser of the group, however, is Bill Walker. Walker was fighting to be eligible for this year's draft and started playing at Kansas State in the second semester however he tore up his knee and needs 6 - 8 months to rehab. Whether he'll get his athleticism back in full is anyone's guess. Also struggling was Paul Harris, who came into school as a man who could play many positions and is now looking like a player who doesn't fit any spot. At 6'4, he's going to desperately need to learn to play the point because his shot (69% FT, 1 - 19 from college 3) isn't going to cut it at the 2 or 3. 5 star recruit and ironically named Derrick Caracter might be better off leaving, in spite of a mediocre season, since he is on thin ice and might not want to risk getting back into Rick Pitino's doghouse or suspended again.

As for the non-freshman in the draft, there are more question marks around them than the freshman. Staying in school hasn't exactly helped many "can't miss" prospect; the Florida trio of Noah, Horford, and Brewer hasn't lived up to the hype this season and preseason lotto locks like Josh McRoberts and Marcus Williams didn't do much to get any NBA teams excited about adding their names to their rosters. Guys like Al Thornton and Alando Tucker have moved up but where they rank is anyone's guess. Meanwhile, Nick Fazekas, Aaron Afflalo, Aaron Gray and others have stayed in and seen their games and their stock stay the same.

And then there's the first non-high school rookie class. The 2006 draft looks like one of the worst in recent memory as very few, if any, of the players were ready to make a big impact on a team in their first year. And despite not having any straight-from-high-schoolers, the draft is littered with projects and guys whose games suddenly don't seem to be what teams expected.

So in the end, the age limit hasn't really helped anyone save for Boston, Memphis, Philly, and Milwaukee who've all fallen on hard times and have a shot at an elite level player at the head of this draft while the Raptors, Bulls, Bobcats, Blazers and Hawks had to settle for a watered-down class.