NBA Draft '06: The 2001 Comparison
I've often said that this draft resembled the 2001 draft so I thought I should put my money where my blog is and make the comparison, pick-for-pick. A lot of players could fit a couple of guys but here's my predicted comparisons. Maybe in 2011, we can look back and see how these panned out.
The Kwame Brown: Hilton Armstrong.
Hilton, like Kwame, lacks the drive and attitude to truly make a difference. He has the skills, size, and athleticism to stick around the league for a couple of contracts but in the end, he'll be seen more as a waste than a talent.
The Tyson Chandler: Ronnie Brewer.
Super athlete who does well but isn't enough. Chandler is more useful because of his size but I think he, like Brewer, will always tease with his athleticism and leave you wanting more actual results.
The Pau Gasol: Rudy Gay.
Most people probably have Gay pegged as the Rodney White, but I'm going with Rudy as the superstar who doesn't have enough to truly carry a team. He's got go-to guy ability but second fiddle cajones.
The Eddy Curry: LaMarcus Aldridge.
A lot of people could have gone in the soft big man role but LaMarcus seems to be the best pick. Ideally, he'll be a mix of the two big baby Bulls but more likely he'll just be a big baby like Curry.
The Jason Richardson: Tyrus Thomas.
Ty will be the star who doesn't ever really help his team win. While Richardson is a bit stuck between the two swing spots, Ty will forever be leaning towards the small forward while his team hopes he can play more at the four. Unlike Richardson, Thomas will actually see the playoffs but he won't last in them very long. (Then again, Thomas could easily be the Pau Gasol of the group)
The Shane Battier: Brandon Roy.
People who "know" basketball love Battier and Roy but people who "just watch" basketball don't get the fascination. Roy can do it all and will likely have to be the glue that keeps the Blazers together. His team focus will possibly hurt his stats but he'll be a solid role player whom certain people will overrate and others will underappreciate.
The Eddie Griffin: Andrea Bargnani.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm not damning Big Italy to a sub-par career but he needs an attitude check and some muscle to really make it. While Eddie had a bad attitude, Andrea simply doesn't seem to have any. He needs to get the fire that separates Dirk from most other Euro-ballers. If he doesn't, he could end up battling Griffin as the most naturally gifted 10th man in the league.
The Desagana Diop: Saer Sene.
This one is obvious.
The Rodney White: Thabo Sefolosha.
While his name is harder to spell than White's, his game sounds just as soft. The one thing that could help him is that the expectations will be low in Chicago where all he has to do in his first season is be a complement off the pine.
The Joe Johnson: Shawne Williams.
Had Shawne spent another year at Memphis, I think he would have developed into a JJ level super sophomore. He has a good understanding of the game and ability to play many positions. He might be a little more outspoken that Joe but he is an underrated young player who shouldn't have slipped in the draft.
Kedrick Brown: Patrick O'Bryant.
Both of these guys look the part, might play the part in a couple of games in their career but in the end will fail to make much of a dent in the league. O'Bryant will likely hang around longer than Kedrick because of his size but I don't see him helping the Warriors win anything. Like Kedrick, O'Bryant's name will be said with more regret than respect.
The Vlad Rad: JJ Redick.
A one dimensional gunner who could disappoint on the wrong team but suddenly seem like a useful player when put on a squad that can overcome his deficiencies and allow him to do what he is good at.
The Richard Jefferson: Rodney Carney.
Rudy Gay might be a better fit here since, like Jefferson, he's a great supporting player who was drafted and then traded by Houston, but I'm going to go with Rodney Carney. I think he could step in and help A.I. and Webber much like Jefferson helped Kidd and K-Mart. Unfortunately, it seems like A.I. could be traded. If Carney is the focus of offense, he could be in trouble but as a third or fourth option in his rookie year, he should grow into a solid career.
The Troy Murphy: Adam Morrison.
A talented player who puts up solid numbers but is more of a liability than he is worth. While both Murphy and Morrison do the best with their physical abilities, their physical abilities make them better role players in the NBA.
The Steven Hunter: Josh Boone.
Boone will never be anything much but he'll always be good enough to find a roster spot and maybe get traded a couple of times. Josh and Hilton could easily be switched with Hilton equaling Hunter and Boone being Brown.
The Kirk Haston: Steve Novak.
Novak is the highest pick who'll be out of the league before you even get time to forget that he was ever drafted.
The Michael Bradley: Paul Davis.
Talented big men whose talents aren't much use outside of the NCAA.
The Jason Collins: PJ Tucker.
Collins isn't spectacular but he does enough to help his team. Tucker is similar. If the Raptors lose Mo Peterson, Tucker's situation could be like Collins'; not the best option in the world at his position, but the best option on the team and good enough for them to focus on other needs.
The Zach Randolph: Marcus Williams.
He'll shine as a backup. When he gets the chance to start, he'll impress everyone. And then he'll keep being good but never maturing into greatness. A lot of people will regret not taking Marcus a year or two after the draft but as the years pass, people won't mind not having him around. Marcus could be The Jamal Tinsley but I think he'll have a few great years before leveling off.
The Brendan Haywood: James White.
Both guys had moments in college and always will hear that they "should be better" in the pros. Both will stick around the league for some time but never make a name for themselves.
The Joe Forte: Quincy Douby.
He can shoot and score but he has no real position and is very flawed. Much like C's fans with Forte, Kings fans will wonder, "Wait, if we wanted a PG, why didn't we take one of the actual PG's?" The one difference with Douby is that his attitude is better than Joe's. He might be able to stick around the league as a shooting specialist while Forte was too bust smoking doobies and pissing people off to ever build a career.
The Jeryl Sasser: Mardy Collins.
Both are big guards who are defensive minded but are too slow to really make it in the league. Sasser never got minutes in his career and Collins will be hard pressed to break the Knicks rotation.
The Brandon Armstrong: Joel Freeland.
Both guys kind of came out of nowhere to shoot up into the first round. As it turned out, neither of them really belonged in the first round. Then again, Freeland could be The Zach Randolph. I really have no handle on him but I don't trust those damn Brits so he can labeled Brandon.
The Raul Lopez: Sergio Rodriguez.
The once and future Spanish Chocolate, Raul and Rodriguez are both better suited for Europe than the NBA. After a few years, Raul realized this and packed his bags. Sergio might figure this out sooner if he's stuck in Portland for too long.
The Gerald Wallace: Rajon Rondo.
The obvious comparison is Shawne Williams but Shawne's defense isn't as good as Wallace's. For that reason, I'm going with Rajon Rondo. Rondo, like Wallace, left college because he wasn't being used correctly. Wallace was stuck at PF while Rondo was playing off-guard. Both guys came in with low expectations and, if the C's don't deal Delonte or Telfair, were buried on the bench for the beginning of their careers. It will take Rajon a while to grow into an offensive threat but if he does, he could be a very impressive player.
The Samuel Dalembert: Cedric Simmons.
Simmons like Dalembert will start slow, show potential, and then frustrate. All the while, his team and fans will wait for him to work on his offensive game and wish he could be tougher.
The Jamaal Tinsley: Maurice Ager.
Mel Mel the Abuser made himself a lot of fans with his play as a rookie but he never really improved from there. If he gets time, I think Maurice could turn some heads in Dallas but I can't see him ever improving all that much.
The Tony Parker: Kyle Lowry.
Kyle needs to work on his shot but he has the ability to be as good as Mr. Eva Longoria. Like Parker, people will be surprised with how good he turns out.
The Trenton Hassell: Renaldo Balkman.
Small school bred defensive specialists.
The Gilbert Arenas: Randy Foye.
Part of me wanted to make the bold prediction of Shannon Brown but I'll stick with the more obvious Randy Foye. Foye and Arenas are off guards in lead guard bodies who, while not pure at the point, still find a way to make it work. I can't shake the feeling that Foye could be the surprise bust of the draft but for now I'll go with what seems obvious.
The Omar Cook: Darius Washington.
Rondo could EASILY be Cook instead of Wallace. Daniel Gibson is another candidate but he fell into the perfect situation. So I'm going to go with the undrafted Washington.
The Willie Solomon: OK, you know what, I'm going to skip ahead and pass over the guys who basically never made it. Lord knows who Willie Solomon was let alone who the next Willie Solomon will be.
The Terrence Morris: Kosta Perovic.
Morris and Perovic were both rumored to be lotto picks, didn't enter the draft and ended up being second round picks and waiver wire fodder.
The Brian Scalabrine: Hassan Adams.
Like Veal, Adams will be made to look better that he is by playing with Jason Kidd and the rest of the Nets. Someone will be wowed by his stats, sign him, and realize that he's nothing more than a role player.
Mehmet Okur : Shelden Williams & Oleksiy Pecherov.
A solid big man who can put up numbers and be a force at times but isn't going to be more than a third or fourth option on a winning team. I don't know much about Pecherov so I'll stick him with Okur.
The Earl Watson : Daniel Gibson.
A player that will work himself into a solid pro point guard but will never be a starting point guard. (Note: Gibson could easily be the next Jamison Brewer but I have faith in him.)
The Bobby Simmons: Leon Powe.
Powe, like Simmons, should learn on the bench for a couple of years and then rise to the occassion and be a surprise success when given some time. He then will get paid handsomely and, by no fault of his own, people will realize that he isn't worth the contract he signed. A good player but not someone you should invest more than the MLE on.
The Loren Woods: Marcus Vinicius.
Vinicius could be a player but supposedly gets lost and isn't always focused. He also has major flaws on defense. Woods' issues were on offense in the pros but his lack of focus was the same as Marquihos'.
The Jarron Collins: Dee Brown.
Like Collins, Brown might not ever be worth starting but he could easily find himself as a starter on a bad team. Also, they aren't perfect but they have the right stuff to keep them in the league and in a team's rotation for years.
Hilton, like Kwame, lacks the drive and attitude to truly make a difference. He has the skills, size, and athleticism to stick around the league for a couple of contracts but in the end, he'll be seen more as a waste than a talent.
The Tyson Chandler: Ronnie Brewer.
Super athlete who does well but isn't enough. Chandler is more useful because of his size but I think he, like Brewer, will always tease with his athleticism and leave you wanting more actual results.
The Pau Gasol: Rudy Gay.
Most people probably have Gay pegged as the Rodney White, but I'm going with Rudy as the superstar who doesn't have enough to truly carry a team. He's got go-to guy ability but second fiddle cajones.
The Eddy Curry: LaMarcus Aldridge.
A lot of people could have gone in the soft big man role but LaMarcus seems to be the best pick. Ideally, he'll be a mix of the two big baby Bulls but more likely he'll just be a big baby like Curry.
The Jason Richardson: Tyrus Thomas.
Ty will be the star who doesn't ever really help his team win. While Richardson is a bit stuck between the two swing spots, Ty will forever be leaning towards the small forward while his team hopes he can play more at the four. Unlike Richardson, Thomas will actually see the playoffs but he won't last in them very long. (Then again, Thomas could easily be the Pau Gasol of the group)
The Shane Battier: Brandon Roy.
People who "know" basketball love Battier and Roy but people who "just watch" basketball don't get the fascination. Roy can do it all and will likely have to be the glue that keeps the Blazers together. His team focus will possibly hurt his stats but he'll be a solid role player whom certain people will overrate and others will underappreciate.
The Eddie Griffin: Andrea Bargnani.
Now don't get me wrong, I'm not damning Big Italy to a sub-par career but he needs an attitude check and some muscle to really make it. While Eddie had a bad attitude, Andrea simply doesn't seem to have any. He needs to get the fire that separates Dirk from most other Euro-ballers. If he doesn't, he could end up battling Griffin as the most naturally gifted 10th man in the league.
The Desagana Diop: Saer Sene.
This one is obvious.
The Rodney White: Thabo Sefolosha.
While his name is harder to spell than White's, his game sounds just as soft. The one thing that could help him is that the expectations will be low in Chicago where all he has to do in his first season is be a complement off the pine.
The Joe Johnson: Shawne Williams.
Had Shawne spent another year at Memphis, I think he would have developed into a JJ level super sophomore. He has a good understanding of the game and ability to play many positions. He might be a little more outspoken that Joe but he is an underrated young player who shouldn't have slipped in the draft.
Kedrick Brown: Patrick O'Bryant.
Both of these guys look the part, might play the part in a couple of games in their career but in the end will fail to make much of a dent in the league. O'Bryant will likely hang around longer than Kedrick because of his size but I don't see him helping the Warriors win anything. Like Kedrick, O'Bryant's name will be said with more regret than respect.
The Vlad Rad: JJ Redick.
A one dimensional gunner who could disappoint on the wrong team but suddenly seem like a useful player when put on a squad that can overcome his deficiencies and allow him to do what he is good at.
The Richard Jefferson: Rodney Carney.
Rudy Gay might be a better fit here since, like Jefferson, he's a great supporting player who was drafted and then traded by Houston, but I'm going to go with Rodney Carney. I think he could step in and help A.I. and Webber much like Jefferson helped Kidd and K-Mart. Unfortunately, it seems like A.I. could be traded. If Carney is the focus of offense, he could be in trouble but as a third or fourth option in his rookie year, he should grow into a solid career.
The Troy Murphy: Adam Morrison.
A talented player who puts up solid numbers but is more of a liability than he is worth. While both Murphy and Morrison do the best with their physical abilities, their physical abilities make them better role players in the NBA.
The Steven Hunter: Josh Boone.
Boone will never be anything much but he'll always be good enough to find a roster spot and maybe get traded a couple of times. Josh and Hilton could easily be switched with Hilton equaling Hunter and Boone being Brown.
The Kirk Haston: Steve Novak.
Novak is the highest pick who'll be out of the league before you even get time to forget that he was ever drafted.
The Michael Bradley: Paul Davis.
Talented big men whose talents aren't much use outside of the NCAA.
The Jason Collins: PJ Tucker.
Collins isn't spectacular but he does enough to help his team. Tucker is similar. If the Raptors lose Mo Peterson, Tucker's situation could be like Collins'; not the best option in the world at his position, but the best option on the team and good enough for them to focus on other needs.
The Zach Randolph: Marcus Williams.
He'll shine as a backup. When he gets the chance to start, he'll impress everyone. And then he'll keep being good but never maturing into greatness. A lot of people will regret not taking Marcus a year or two after the draft but as the years pass, people won't mind not having him around. Marcus could be The Jamal Tinsley but I think he'll have a few great years before leveling off.
The Brendan Haywood: James White.
Both guys had moments in college and always will hear that they "should be better" in the pros. Both will stick around the league for some time but never make a name for themselves.
The Joe Forte: Quincy Douby.
He can shoot and score but he has no real position and is very flawed. Much like C's fans with Forte, Kings fans will wonder, "Wait, if we wanted a PG, why didn't we take one of the actual PG's?" The one difference with Douby is that his attitude is better than Joe's. He might be able to stick around the league as a shooting specialist while Forte was too bust smoking doobies and pissing people off to ever build a career.
The Jeryl Sasser: Mardy Collins.
Both are big guards who are defensive minded but are too slow to really make it in the league. Sasser never got minutes in his career and Collins will be hard pressed to break the Knicks rotation.
The Brandon Armstrong: Joel Freeland.
Both guys kind of came out of nowhere to shoot up into the first round. As it turned out, neither of them really belonged in the first round. Then again, Freeland could be The Zach Randolph. I really have no handle on him but I don't trust those damn Brits so he can labeled Brandon.
The Raul Lopez: Sergio Rodriguez.
The once and future Spanish Chocolate, Raul and Rodriguez are both better suited for Europe than the NBA. After a few years, Raul realized this and packed his bags. Sergio might figure this out sooner if he's stuck in Portland for too long.
The Gerald Wallace: Rajon Rondo.
The obvious comparison is Shawne Williams but Shawne's defense isn't as good as Wallace's. For that reason, I'm going with Rajon Rondo. Rondo, like Wallace, left college because he wasn't being used correctly. Wallace was stuck at PF while Rondo was playing off-guard. Both guys came in with low expectations and, if the C's don't deal Delonte or Telfair, were buried on the bench for the beginning of their careers. It will take Rajon a while to grow into an offensive threat but if he does, he could be a very impressive player.
The Samuel Dalembert: Cedric Simmons.
Simmons like Dalembert will start slow, show potential, and then frustrate. All the while, his team and fans will wait for him to work on his offensive game and wish he could be tougher.
The Jamaal Tinsley: Maurice Ager.
Mel Mel the Abuser made himself a lot of fans with his play as a rookie but he never really improved from there. If he gets time, I think Maurice could turn some heads in Dallas but I can't see him ever improving all that much.
The Tony Parker: Kyle Lowry.
Kyle needs to work on his shot but he has the ability to be as good as Mr. Eva Longoria. Like Parker, people will be surprised with how good he turns out.
The Trenton Hassell: Renaldo Balkman.
Small school bred defensive specialists.
The Gilbert Arenas: Randy Foye.
Part of me wanted to make the bold prediction of Shannon Brown but I'll stick with the more obvious Randy Foye. Foye and Arenas are off guards in lead guard bodies who, while not pure at the point, still find a way to make it work. I can't shake the feeling that Foye could be the surprise bust of the draft but for now I'll go with what seems obvious.
The Omar Cook: Darius Washington.
Rondo could EASILY be Cook instead of Wallace. Daniel Gibson is another candidate but he fell into the perfect situation. So I'm going to go with the undrafted Washington.
The Willie Solomon: OK, you know what, I'm going to skip ahead and pass over the guys who basically never made it. Lord knows who Willie Solomon was let alone who the next Willie Solomon will be.
The Terrence Morris: Kosta Perovic.
Morris and Perovic were both rumored to be lotto picks, didn't enter the draft and ended up being second round picks and waiver wire fodder.
The Brian Scalabrine: Hassan Adams.
Like Veal, Adams will be made to look better that he is by playing with Jason Kidd and the rest of the Nets. Someone will be wowed by his stats, sign him, and realize that he's nothing more than a role player.
Mehmet Okur : Shelden Williams & Oleksiy Pecherov.
A solid big man who can put up numbers and be a force at times but isn't going to be more than a third or fourth option on a winning team. I don't know much about Pecherov so I'll stick him with Okur.
The Earl Watson : Daniel Gibson.
A player that will work himself into a solid pro point guard but will never be a starting point guard. (Note: Gibson could easily be the next Jamison Brewer but I have faith in him.)
The Bobby Simmons: Leon Powe.
Powe, like Simmons, should learn on the bench for a couple of years and then rise to the occassion and be a surprise success when given some time. He then will get paid handsomely and, by no fault of his own, people will realize that he isn't worth the contract he signed. A good player but not someone you should invest more than the MLE on.
The Loren Woods: Marcus Vinicius.
Vinicius could be a player but supposedly gets lost and isn't always focused. He also has major flaws on defense. Woods' issues were on offense in the pros but his lack of focus was the same as Marquihos'.
The Jarron Collins: Dee Brown.
Like Collins, Brown might not ever be worth starting but he could easily find himself as a starter on a bad team. Also, they aren't perfect but they have the right stuff to keep them in the league and in a team's rotation for years.
