Tending the House: The Round-Up
So where do the Celtics stand? That my friends, is exactly the question. Danny Ainge has three options this season: go for it now, blow it up now, or hold off one year before making a decision. The three schools of thought have their negative and positives.
The Blow It Up Route: If you don't see us winning the title any time soon and are not looking forward to having Pierce on the books with a second max contract, now would be the time to trade him. His value has never been higher and he could fetch some very nice trade packages. We'd also look to dump Wally and Raef and clear out all of the overpaid veterans from the payroll. THe core would be: West, Tony Allen, Green, Jefferson, Perkins, Gomes and we'd build around them. Pierce to Chicago could net Hinrich, Nocioni and the Knicks pick this year or 2007. A deal with the Warriors could bring in Jason Richardson, Monta Ellis, and Andris Biedrins. The Clippers have Maggette, Livingston and possibly more to offer. The hard part would be dumping Wally and Raef for nothing but I think it could be done.
The Positives: We start from scratch and head into the possibly loaded 2007 draft with a good chance of netting a very high pick. We get rid of our mistakes in Wally and Raef and move on fresh. This approach depends heavily on drafting ability which is Danny's strong suit.
The Negatives: We become bad. Very bad. For at least a year or two. Poor draft choices and a lack of development from the current crop of youngsters and we've become the Golden St. Warriors or Atlanta Hawks. Also, giving Danny Ainge cap space could be a dangerous move, judging from his lack of interest in market value contracts in the past. M The Win Now Route: Youth be damned. We deal Raef, Green, Big Al, and our pick for Jermaine O'Neal. Wally, Delonte, and Allen go West for Baron Davis. We reup Paul Pierce and spend the entire MLE on Matt Harpring to round out the lineup with Kendrick Perkins. We go for Banner 17 next season.
The Positives: Fan interest is booming with the new stars coming in and the wins will start coming more often. We put together a team that can make the old guard proud and get us back into the playoffs where the Celtics belong.
The Negatives: In order to get someone who legitimately will make us title contenders, we'd have to give up an absolute ton because we don't have any medium-sized contracts to offer. Any major deal has to involve either Wally or Raef and I don't see many teams interested in either of them. To make teams listen, we'd have to load up on our youngsters which could come back to haunt us. Furthermore, this method would seriously deplete the roster of any and all depth. While the Baron, Pierce, Harpring, O'Neal, Perkins lineup sounds nice, the backups of Dickau, Greene, Scalabrine, Gomes, and Dwayne Jones leaves a lot to be desired. Also, the team I put together is highly unlikely since Wyc and the other owners don't seem interested in paying the luxury tax. Finally, any player we get back is likely flawed. In this case, Baron is injury prone and not necessarily the answer at point. While Jermaine is only 28, he's a ten year veteran who has taken a beating to his thin frame. Yes, he didn't play much his first few years, but that time off had been made up for by all of Jermaine's minutes in the playoffs. And with injury woes popping up this season, there's no telling how many years Jermaine has left in his prime, before he hit Webberland where you miss too many games in the season and are inconsistent in the postseason. Finally, this direction limits the C's window to win the title to about three to five years. After that, everyone will be old and collecting ginormous paychecks. If we don't win when the window is open, it's going to be ugly when it passes by. The Deep Breath Route: The final option is to do very little. We try to move Raef, possibly offering our draft pick but not accepting any bad long term deals back in return. We spend the MLE to bring in a veteran, maybe even split it up on a PG like David Wesley and a big man like Aaron Williams. You allow your young players to mature and you let your veterans' contracts become ever more tradeable as they are now a year shorter. Maybe at the trade deadline something pops up, maybe you just wait another year to see where we stand next offseason.
The Positives: You don't give up too much in future assets to get upgrade for the future. You build some continuity in the locker room and let the youngster and vets grow together. A year of health would help Tony Allen and Wally Szczerbiak's trade value immensely. You struggle and end up with a good pick in the loaded 2007 draft. Essentially, you take a deep breath, count to ten, and try the Win Now method next season when your assets are worth more.
The Negatives: As I said, you struggle. If things don't go well, Pierce could become unhappy and want out. Big Al could haev more injury problems and his value could be worse. Same with Wally and Raef. You tick off your star and your fan base who expected some sort of improvement. If things fall apart while you're holding your breath, you enter the Blow It Up stage with worse trade assets and an angry fan base not looking to be bad again. Personally, I've been for the blow it up angle, especially if Pierce wants a big max contract. We get young stars for Pierce and start over from scratch. No bad contracts, just high picks and young talent. I highly doubt Danny is at all interested in this, although he also probably isn't interested in my second choice which is stand pat. The Celtics won't be winning the title next season so why not wait a year until our prospects improve and Raef and Wally are easier to move. While there is risk involved, I'd rather risk our guys not doing well here, then risk them doing great somewhere else.
The Win Now idea, sponsored by the Sports Guy is problematic. The guys that interest them, like Jermaine O'Neal, aren't really available and will be hard to get. Odds are we'll settle for a lesser name like Zach Randolph or Carlos Boozer, neither of whom is going to improve us all that much. Unless Danny finds an amazing steal, I can't see this method improving us to anywhere better than mediocre. Maybe a run or two to the conference finals but that's it.
Unfortunately, I think Danny is heading towards trying to win now which means we could be repeating the mistakes of Pitino and Wallace, trading away great young talent for short term fixes that don't get the job done and leaves us ringless and worse off in four years than we already are.
The Positives: We start from scratch and head into the possibly loaded 2007 draft with a good chance of netting a very high pick. We get rid of our mistakes in Wally and Raef and move on fresh. This approach depends heavily on drafting ability which is Danny's strong suit.
The Negatives: We become bad. Very bad. For at least a year or two. Poor draft choices and a lack of development from the current crop of youngsters and we've become the Golden St. Warriors or Atlanta Hawks. Also, giving Danny Ainge cap space could be a dangerous move, judging from his lack of interest in market value contracts in the past. M The Win Now Route: Youth be damned. We deal Raef, Green, Big Al, and our pick for Jermaine O'Neal. Wally, Delonte, and Allen go West for Baron Davis. We reup Paul Pierce and spend the entire MLE on Matt Harpring to round out the lineup with Kendrick Perkins. We go for Banner 17 next season.
The Positives: Fan interest is booming with the new stars coming in and the wins will start coming more often. We put together a team that can make the old guard proud and get us back into the playoffs where the Celtics belong.
The Negatives: In order to get someone who legitimately will make us title contenders, we'd have to give up an absolute ton because we don't have any medium-sized contracts to offer. Any major deal has to involve either Wally or Raef and I don't see many teams interested in either of them. To make teams listen, we'd have to load up on our youngsters which could come back to haunt us. Furthermore, this method would seriously deplete the roster of any and all depth. While the Baron, Pierce, Harpring, O'Neal, Perkins lineup sounds nice, the backups of Dickau, Greene, Scalabrine, Gomes, and Dwayne Jones leaves a lot to be desired. Also, the team I put together is highly unlikely since Wyc and the other owners don't seem interested in paying the luxury tax. Finally, any player we get back is likely flawed. In this case, Baron is injury prone and not necessarily the answer at point. While Jermaine is only 28, he's a ten year veteran who has taken a beating to his thin frame. Yes, he didn't play much his first few years, but that time off had been made up for by all of Jermaine's minutes in the playoffs. And with injury woes popping up this season, there's no telling how many years Jermaine has left in his prime, before he hit Webberland where you miss too many games in the season and are inconsistent in the postseason. Finally, this direction limits the C's window to win the title to about three to five years. After that, everyone will be old and collecting ginormous paychecks. If we don't win when the window is open, it's going to be ugly when it passes by. The Deep Breath Route: The final option is to do very little. We try to move Raef, possibly offering our draft pick but not accepting any bad long term deals back in return. We spend the MLE to bring in a veteran, maybe even split it up on a PG like David Wesley and a big man like Aaron Williams. You allow your young players to mature and you let your veterans' contracts become ever more tradeable as they are now a year shorter. Maybe at the trade deadline something pops up, maybe you just wait another year to see where we stand next offseason.
The Positives: You don't give up too much in future assets to get upgrade for the future. You build some continuity in the locker room and let the youngster and vets grow together. A year of health would help Tony Allen and Wally Szczerbiak's trade value immensely. You struggle and end up with a good pick in the loaded 2007 draft. Essentially, you take a deep breath, count to ten, and try the Win Now method next season when your assets are worth more.
The Negatives: As I said, you struggle. If things don't go well, Pierce could become unhappy and want out. Big Al could haev more injury problems and his value could be worse. Same with Wally and Raef. You tick off your star and your fan base who expected some sort of improvement. If things fall apart while you're holding your breath, you enter the Blow It Up stage with worse trade assets and an angry fan base not looking to be bad again. Personally, I've been for the blow it up angle, especially if Pierce wants a big max contract. We get young stars for Pierce and start over from scratch. No bad contracts, just high picks and young talent. I highly doubt Danny is at all interested in this, although he also probably isn't interested in my second choice which is stand pat. The Celtics won't be winning the title next season so why not wait a year until our prospects improve and Raef and Wally are easier to move. While there is risk involved, I'd rather risk our guys not doing well here, then risk them doing great somewhere else.
The Win Now idea, sponsored by the Sports Guy is problematic. The guys that interest them, like Jermaine O'Neal, aren't really available and will be hard to get. Odds are we'll settle for a lesser name like Zach Randolph or Carlos Boozer, neither of whom is going to improve us all that much. Unless Danny finds an amazing steal, I can't see this method improving us to anywhere better than mediocre. Maybe a run or two to the conference finals but that's it.
Unfortunately, I think Danny is heading towards trying to win now which means we could be repeating the mistakes of Pitino and Wallace, trading away great young talent for short term fixes that don't get the job done and leaves us ringless and worse off in four years than we already are.
