With Posey gone, the Celtics now have three available roster spots, all three of which will likely be in the rotation (two of which could be the first two players off the pine). Who can the Celtics get to fill these spots? Who's available?

1. Kelenna Azubuike: If you know me, you're probably sick of hearing me gush over Azubuike but I love this kid. He can defend and he can hit the open 3. He doesn't have Posey's height so he won't be as strong against opposing SF's (or the only one that matters, LeBron) but he's better against 2-guards.
Signed Offer Sheet with L.A. Clippers

2. J.R. Smith: J.R. Smith for the MLE would be a steal but the reason I rank him below 'Buike is his defense. Smith has All-Star talent in him but he hasn't been able to put it all together. If there's a chance for him to do it, what better place than alongside Ray Allen, Pierce, and KG?

3. Josh Childress: Can't imagine Atlanta doesn't match but he's basically Posey-lite.

4. Devin Brown: A tough veteran, Brown would be a great, cheap answer however I am a bit nervous about the fact that his three point percentage dipped to 31% last season.

5. Mickael Gelabale: The 6'7 Frenchman probably isn't strong enough to defend LeBron but he is an active defender and shot the ball fairly well last season. Plus, he's got some great hair. The problem, of course, is that he might not be ready (or able) to handle significant minutes, especially come playoff time.

6. Devean George: Fading as he gets older, George can at least still defend and shoot the three.

7. Matt Barnes: I'm not a Matt Barnes fan, especially since his three point percentage dipped this past season, but he can handle the 3 and 4 and wouldn't be a bad signing. If we could get Barnes and a 2-guard lik Azubuike, I'd be happy.

8. Kirk Snyder: Still only 25, Snyder seems like the guy who could be a late bloomer in the right situation. He shot the three pointer better earlier in his career and is potentially a good defender, he might not be a bad option to take over Tony Allen's roster spot.

9. Mo Evans/Keith Bogans: Meh. Either of them wouldn't be a bad last ditch signing but I wouldn't offer much.

10. Ruben Patterson: If it's defense we need, it's defense he can provide. However he most certainly won't fit Posey's three-for-all role in the offense.

After that ten, I'd probably just look to bring back Tony Allen and spend more money on a backup point guard.

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

James Posey is heading to New Orleans, wallets bulging with a four year, 25 million dollar contract. The move makes sense for the Hornets who have a lot of money spent on Peja and Morris Peterson for three more years so it's not like they'll have much cap space to play with anyway. Year 4 is a wash since James will be an expiring contract and, at the very least, a tradeable commodity.

Part of me wishes we kept James but, on the other hand, I don't think this is a crushing blow to the Celtics and it should definitely keep the guys from getting complacent. ESPN claims the move was due to "luxury tax concerns" but I don't buy that because the stumbling block was the amount of years and the luxury tax problem would be at its worst in the next couple of years (with the Big Three still on their big contracts).  

It was a tough call on Ainge's part but the real impact of the move won't be felt until the other shoe drops. The C's now need to look at their backup options (I'll be posting about this tonight or tomorrow) and see what they can do to reload for their title defense.

Posted by SoulHonky at 08:23 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Vince Carter to the Clippers
I thought this deal needed to happen before the Clips got Marcus Camby but I think it's even more imperative now. The two best players on Southern Cal's other team are both north of 30 so the window for winning is small (if it even exists in the Western Conference). The team isn't going anywhere as is and probably just succeeded in getting themselves a worse lotto pick. True, Camby's contract is off the books before the Great Free Agent Class of 2010 but how many players do you know that are going to be interested in placing the prime of their careers in the hands of Elgin Baylor?

The Clippers one chance to make some noise this offseason is to deal package the contracts of Tim Thomas and Cuttino Mobley along with Eric Gordon and a future pick to get Vinsanity. The lineup of Baron Davis, Vince, Al Thornton, Marcus Camby, and Chris Kaman could make some noise in the West and gives the Clippers their best chance at being a relevant franchise. The Nets get a young prospect in Gordon, future pick(s), and cap space for LeBron in 2010. A supporting cast Devin Harris, Gordon, Yi, Sean Williams, Brook Lopez isn't a bad start and that's not including what's sure to be another lotto pick this year.

Jason Kidd for Allen Iverson 
Two experiment gone mediocre, it's time to try to fix things a bit in Dallas and Denver. The Iverson/'Melo tandem is fun but it's gone about as far as it could possibly go (especially with Camby no gone). The best thing for 'Melo, K-Mart, and JR Smith (whom they should re-sign) is to team them with the consumate running PG in Jason Kidd. Martin had his best seasons running alongside Kidd and I could see Smith blossoming by feeding off of him. 

As for the Mavericks have been in dire need of some toughness and cajones and that's always been Iverson's greatest strength. I might even go for an overload of cajones and deal Josh Howard for Ron Artest and Shelden Williams while I was at it.

Tracy McGrady for the Pistons backcourt 
In the Conference Finals, the Pistons played with a been there, done that attitude that made it seem like they didn't really care whether they won or lost. If there's one guy out there who could change that attitude, it's the still-never-won-a-playoff-series Tracy McGrady. The Rox and Stones make a huge swap, with Chauncey Billups, Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince heading to H-Town while the Motor City welcomes T-Mac, Shane Battier, and a sign & trade of Carl Landry Houston adds a championship caliber backcourt alongside Yao, Scola, Landry, and friends while the Pistons trot out Stuckey, T-Mac, Battier, Landry, and Rasheed Wallace. I'm not sure if it would bring these teams the titles but it's better than maintaining the status quo.

Chi-Town Shaq
The Suns give up on the Shaq experiment and, while they don't get anyone the caliber of Shawn Marion, they do get three solid backup pieces in Larry Hughes, Andres Nocioni, and Joakim Noah.  Chicago teams the #1 pick (whom some have compared to Dwyane Wade) with the man that helped Wade win a ring. Diesel might not be the player he once was but the lineup of Rose, Hinrich, Deng, Gooden/Thomas could be good enough to help him make a run at one last ring. If the Bulls could sign & trade Ben Gordon and Ty Thomas for a starting power forward, even better.
--- 

And if we need one more to make it five, I'd deal Shawn Marion to the Bobcats for Gerald Wallace. Someone else might have to be added to make it work but if I'm the Heat, I'm happy to add a defensive minded player to complement Beasley (and one who's not a free agent next year). I might even be willing to take on Matt Carroll's terrible contract. As for the Bobcats, they get a veteran who could help the team take it to the next level (which is still a level below the playoffs). The last person the Heat need to get on their team (especially for Marion) is Lamar Odom. Why would you team a crazy but uber-talented kid like Beasley with one of the biggest wastes of talent of the last decade? 

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:51 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Marc Spears (who I should take a moment to commend on his excellent coverage of the Celtics) is reporting that the Celtics seem to be locked into a two year offer to James Posey while Team Posey is understandebly looking for a longer deal.

Celtics forward James Posey's agent, Mark Bartelstien, said Sunday that there could be "something" contract-wise for his client on Monday. Bartelstien would not divulge the interested teams, but an NBA source said that the Hornets seem to be Boston's main competition. The Celtics seem willing to give Posey the full $5.5 mid-level exception, but it seems doubtful that it will be offered more than two years. The 31-year-old seems interested in getting a four-year deal. Other teams potentially interested in Posey include Detroit, Washington and Cleveland

If this is true, I can't see how Posey wouldn't take the Hornets offer. New Orleans paid Peja Stojakovic the max and gave the full MLE for four years to Morris Peterson so you have to imagine that they won't think twice about offering James what he wants. Posey is also from Cleveland so I could see why going to the Cavs might make sense (although I'm not sure why they'd invest their MLE on a guy who plays the same position as LeBron but this IS Danny Ferry we're talking about).

The play for four years is a no-brainer for Posey as he'd stand to possibly lose millions of dollars if he settled for just a two year deal and then was looking for a new contract when he was 33. As for the Celtics, I initially felt like four years was too much to offer but now I think it could be worth it. How many more years does Posey have left in him? I could see him being successful for a couple more years and even if he tails off in year three of the deal, he'll still be an expiring contract and a useful trade asset heading into year four. The C's currently have a little cap space saved up for the Great Free Agent Rush of 2010 but it's a bit deceiving. Yes, they only have 44 million in salary promised for that year, that is just for Pierce, Garnett, and Kendrick Perkins. Once we re-sign Rondo and add our draft picks, there won't really be much left to offer. Also, we HAVE to replace Posey should he go and I'm not sure how many worthwhile players would really be interested in a 2 year deal.

There's no easy answer here but right now, I'm leaning towards sticking with Posey, even if it means giving him the four year, full MLE deal.  

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:56 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The Los Angeles Clippers seem to want to fail. They've lost Elton Brand and now apparently think that a suitable replacement would be Zach Randolph. There couldn't be a worse move out there (Okay, I'm sure Elgin Baylor could find a worse one but this one's really bad).

The issues with Zach are many and well-documented but the most important one is that the man simply doesn't help his teams win. He doesn't help in the locker room or on the court. He's essentially a younger version of Shareef Abdur-Rahim who was equally adept at raking in 20/10 and lottery picks. With all of the young talent still available, it really makes no sense to waste cap space on Randolph and his exorbitant salary. Thankfully, Donnie Walsh is saving the Clippers from making this mistake by making a mistake of his own.

The New York Knicks got Zach for an underwhelming Channing Frye and the corpse of Steve Francis. After this past disaster in MSG, I'm not sure how Walsh could think he's going to get something better than that offer. And to be honest, cap space alone is a better offer than what the Knicks gave up. The Clippers are supposedly offering a second round pick which isn't bad seeing that it should be a decent one if Randolph lands at LAX. And while I understand that Walsh might hope that he could get something more for Randolph, there comes a point when you just have to cut your losses and move on. That time is now, especially if they can get immediate salary relief.

The Clippers need to focus on bringing in some of the young free agents like Josh Smith, Emeka Okafor, Carl Landry. or Nenad Krstic and avoid the disaster that is Z-Bo.

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:29 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I liked the idea of giving Patrick O'Bryant the Scot Pollard Memorial roster spot before the draft but before the draft i was also thinking that we might walk away with one or possibly no new players. Talk was that the C's could trade their first rounder and take a Euro to stash away overseas with the second pick. Now with two rookies as well as Gabe Pruitt, I'm not so sure about having over a quarter of our roster being unproven young guys.

On the other hand, I really like the idea of Clifford Ray getting to work with the athletic O'Bryant and I could see him doing enough in this one year to fool someone into thinking that he could be the next big thing. Maybe we could then move O'Bryant along with Ray Allen's expiring deal for a younger player. I wouldn't put it past Rick Sund (of Robert Swift, Johan Petro, Saer Sene fame) to get all hot and O'bothered about Patrick and think about shipping Joe Johnson back to Beantown.

In the end, it's an interesting move by Ainge but it also makes the rest of the roster spots all the more important. I really hope we aren't relying too heavily on one or two of our unproven commodities. 

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:30 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

RealGm reports that Paul Pierce has said that the Knicks should dump Stephon Marbury if they truly want to rebuild. While this might look like a shot at Marbury, his comment seems like it might be more of a dream than a diss.

"I'd try to trade him or buy him out at this point," added Pierce, who still believes Marbury can be a starting point guard in the NBA. "I just think he needs a fresh start somewhere else. Marbury needs to be on a veteran team where he fits into what they're trying to do a little bit more."

If someone can get through to Marbury, it would probably be Piece and old friend Kevin Garnett. I think Steph is ready for a comeback season and would love to see him in the Celtics green. Hopefully, the Knicks won't be able to find a trade partner and just buy out Steph, opening up a path for him to come to the C's.

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:21 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The opening of free agency has been filled with surprises as well as the typical head-scratching decisions (the full MLE for Desagana Diop? 4 years, 17 million for Ronny Turiaf?). So let's look at how teams have fared after the first flurry of free agent signings.

Philadelphia 76ers: The Sixers are the big winners, possibly moving up to #2 in the Atlantic division with the addition of Elton Brand.  That being said, the Sixers aren't as big a winner as some people seem to think. While Brand is an All-Star player, I don't think he makes the Sixers an elite Eastern Conference team and part of me isn't sure how much better they are than the Washington Wizards. Still, Brand is a huge signing and puts the Sixers smack dab in the middle of the playoff picture.

Los Angeles Clippers: While the Clippers seem like big losers after not landing the Baron/Brand duo, they actually could come out in a great position. Personally, I think going from Maggette and Brand to Baron Davis and Josh Smith would be an improvement. I think the Thornton/Smith duo at the forward spots could be a dynamic duo, especially when running alongside Baron. The key is for the Clips is to not panic and overpay someone.

Miami Heat: I like the Chalmers/Wade/Marion/Beasley foursome but I thought the Heat would make a run at a low post big man rather than spend a good chunk of change on a fairly one-dimensional 2 guard James Jones.

Milwaukee Bucks: The Bucks re-signed Andrew Bogut to a 5 year, 60 million dollar contract with inentives that could make it worth 70+ million. While I liked Bogut, he's not that good and when you already have big money invested in Michael Redd and Richard Jefferson, I'm not sure if spending more on Bogut makes much sense.

New York Knicks: New GM, same issues. The Knicks overpaid for a good but not great player who I don't see getting any better in the future. It also doesn't help that Chris Duhon was hardly a Boy Scout in Chicago so it's not like he's going to be a steady force in the locker room.

Dallas Mavericks: Well, at least you can't say they're rearranging the deck chair on the Titanic. The Mavs overpaid old friend Desagana Diop and then signed up the fun but not going to help much when it matters Jose Juan Barea. Unless something changes soon, I wouldn't be surprised if the backup plan in the LeBron sweepstates is Dirk Nowitzki.
 
Golden State Warriors: I thought Chris Mullin and the Warriors were favorites for Worst Offseason of the Year but I never expected it to be this bad. If you had told fans in the Bay Area that their team would trade Baron Davis for Corey Maggette and Ronny Turiaf, they'd call you crazy. Unfortunately for them, that's essentially what the Warriors have done. They've also lost Mickael Pietrus and have yet to re-sign Monta Ellis or Andris Biedrins. While the Warriors can definitely salvage this lost offseason, the scary thing is that things still could get worse.

As for the Celtics, the good news is that nobody has grabbed Posey but the bad sign is that it seems like Posey is definitely going to get a full max, 5 year offer. As much as I'd like to try to split the MLE to grab a couple of players, it's looking like we'll have to use the full MLE to bring in anyone of any value.

Posted by SoulHonky at 07:14 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The C's are taking a look at free agents but right now the key move is to figure out what to do with your sixth man. While re-signing James Posey seemed like a no-brainer, the fact that he wants the full MLE for five years is enough to give any team pause. Is it wise to invest that kind of money on a 31 year old swingman? When the alternatives are Corey Maggette and fellow Clipper teammate Darius Miles, the answer is yes.

Maggette is younger than Posey and he'd help add scoring to the second unit but his defense is a problem. Ray Allen wasn't known as a great defender but made due here last season but the big difference is that Ray knows how to play defense and could fit the system while Maggette's never really shown that he understands defense. In fact, there are a lot of questions about how well Corey understands offense outside of being able to create his own.

As for Miles (who I didn't even consider in my top 75 free agents), he has the potential to be a very good defensive player but he's an All-Time headcase and has chronic knee problems. And even if he helps on defense, Miles is a problem on offense. It's hard to have a sixth man whom you pretty much can't play at the same time as your starting PG. No team is going to lose sleep leaving Rondo and Miles wide open on the perimeter. But that's getting ahead of ourselves because the bottom line is that Miles is the kind of attitude that could bristle even when KG, Pierce, or Ray Allen try to keep him in line. In the end, Miles would be taking Scot Pollard's 15th man spot and I'm not sure if Darius is the kind of guy you want with idle time on his hands. Honestly, I hope Miles can turn his career around and make a great comeback. I'd just rather not take the risk on him.

In the end, while I'm not sold on Posey getting a big five year deal, he's looking like the best option out there (although I'd still like the C's to take a look at Kelenna Azuibuike).

On a related note, while I think John Hollinger's scouting reports are usually a great read, nothing is better than this little blurb on James Posey.

2007-08 outlook: The Celtics signed Posey to a two-year, $7 million deal, one that I think might disappoint them a bit. While Posey answers their need for somebody who can guard LeBron James come playoff time, he struggles defending quicker guards and is unlikely to be much help the likes of Dwyane Wade or Ben Gordon. Additionally, he's likely to drop off a bit from his numbers of a year ago.

The bigger reason he'll disappoint, though, is that he's not Ruben Patterson -- the player Boston passed up in order to sign him. Comparing the two, I'm struggling to fathom how the Celtics came to this decision, and I think it's one they'll regret.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:31 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Here's the end of the list.

51. CJ Miles: The straight-outta-high schooler has shown flashes but hasn't been able to put it all together. Getting away from Jerry Sloan and finding a mentor (ala Ray Allen) might help him progess.
52. Shaun Livingston:Odds are that Livingston is done but he might be worth a look.
53. Mickael Gelabale: The Frenchman should be a solid defender off of the bench.
54. Ricky Davis: Crazy and not the greatest locker room presence, Davis is still a hell of a scorer.
55. Anthony Johnson: A very nice, cheap backup PG option.
56. Devean George: George is getting older but he's still a solid 5th starter/6th man.
57. Brian Skinner: A legit big man option who does the dirty work and is surprisingly effective.
58. James Jones: Lights out shooter off of the bench, Jones's problem is that he doesn't really offer much of anything besides light out shooting off of the bench.
59. Roger Mason Jr.: Under the radar combo guard, Mason Jr. should find himself playing an expanded role this year. He's good enough, he just hasn't gotten the chance.
60. Ronny Turiaf: Ronny is a banger but I have a feeling he's going to get overpaid. He's a nice player off of the bench but really isn't better than most end of the bench bigs, almost all of whom can come farily cheap.
61. Theo Ratliff: Theo showed he had a little life left in him this past season with the Pistons. He's a solid backup and a great vet in the locker room.
62.  Keith Bogans: I've always thought Bogans had been underrated as an NBA player. He's the kind of guy who could step up in the playoffs and make a name for himself if given the chance.
63. Chris Mihm: Long forgotten because of injuries, Mihm is a good big man who would be ranked higher if you could only count on him to stay healthy.
64. Kirk Snyder: A good defender and hard worker, Snyder might not be as talented as someone like Tony Allen but he's steadier.
65. Derek Anderson: A solid veteran swingman who can fill in as a start in a jam.
66. David Harrison: A good big man who you keep thinking should be better but never is.
67. Chris Anderson: The Birdman is a good energy guy off of the pine but his lack of defense makes it hard to really put him as a key role player.
68. Royal Ivey: A nice defensive-minded backup PG, he's kind of like a completely flat broke and in debt man's Rajon Rondo.
69. Steve Francis:I might be holding on to the past here but I think Franchise could help out a team in a limited role ala Dominique Wilkins in his year with the San Antonio Spurs.
70. Yakhoba Diawara: A hard worker, Diawara isn't a bad option as a tenth or eleventh man.
71. Darrell Armstrong: Can't go wrong with the vet PG.
72. Bobby Jones: Another solid defender, I think Jones has some potential and could blossom into a Bobby Simmons type talent.
73. Quinton Ross: He really had no business starting over Corey Maggette and whlie he's a nice player, you aren't winning many games if he's a key contributor.
74. Anthony Carter: A last resort, Carter is a capable if underwhelming backup PG option.
75. Paul Davis: A solid big man with a decent shot, Davis isn't going to win steady minutes but he's the perfect guy to turn to when you're in a jam.

Also-Rans
Fred Jones: He could bounce back as a scorer off of the bench but Jones didn't nothing to inspire too much hope during his time with the Knicks. 
Jamaal Magloire: Worth a shot but he seems to be uninspired of late.
Bonzi Wells: Probably not worth the trouble but if a team needs some help offensively, they could do worse than take a shot on Wells.:
Randolph Morris: Still living off of his high school hype more than anything, Morris is a 12th man. While he has the size, most teams would be better off going with smaller, better options like Paul Davis.
Patrick O'Bryant: I had him higher but reports from workouts are that he simply doesn't have it. If a team has a roster spot available, he's worth a flyer but odds are that he'll be out of the league very soon.

Posted by SoulHonky at 04:36 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Here's the next group of FA talent. The key to this list is trying to find the bargain and not overpaying for a good but not great player. In many cases, teams might be better off signing the lesser talent because they aren't much worse but will make half as much. It's possible that a team could sign a couple of players ranked in the 40's for the same it costs to get someone ranked in the mid-to-late 30's.

21. Louis Williams: I doubt he'll ever live up to his HS hype but Williams still has a lot of potential and sees to be improving each year. He has a chance to be a Barbosa-type off of the pine.
22. Sasha Vujacic: I wouldn't pay Sasha too much but he's a solid player off the bench, bringing a fiery attitude, nice shot, and better than expected defense.
23. Devin Brown: I've alwards been a fan of Brown, a poor man's Posey who can keep defenses honest and also bring some tough defense.
24. Kurt Thomas: Much like PJ Brown for the Celtics, Thomas won't wow you with anything but he'll always seem to be in the right place at the right time and can hit the big shot/make the key stop when need be.
25. Robert Horry: Big Shot Bob's days are coming to a close but he's still a very nice asset to have coming off the bench.
26. Jason Williams: Williams is a tough call because he's either going to plummet as a many 32 year old guards do or he could just as easily make a James Posey-esque Escape from Miami type comeback. He's not someone you'd want to invest in long term but he's still a starting PG in this league and is worth a look.
27. Robert Swift: If he's angling towards anything close to the MLE, his stock moves down. But as a cheapie, 2 or 3 year contract, Swift could be one hell of a catch. He showed some signs of being a starting NBA center a year ago before going down with injuries yet again.
28. Maurice Evans: Evans is a steady-as-she-goes swingman who can is a notch below the likes of Posey, Pietrus, and Childress. He's a solid 6th man but he doesn't seem capable of really stepping up at all. He'll give you what he gives you and nothing more.
30. Matt Barnes: Of all the players in the Warriors system, I think Barnes benefitted the most from the Nellie ball system. Still, he's a solid player who should be able to help a team off of the bench.

THE POINT GUARD PILE 
31. Daniel Gibson
32. Delonte West
33. Lindsey Hunter
34. Keyon Dooling
35. Tyronn Lue
36. Eddie House
37. Chris Duhon
38. Carlos Arroyo

There are a lot of solid backup point guards on the market, all of whom can help a team and none of whom are really worth more than a couple million a year.  Each of the guards has their flaws and there's no one player who I think is a great fit for every team.

39. Bostjan Nachbar: Nachbar has some impressive games
40. Tony Allen: Tony can be extremely frustrating to watch but the fact remains that he is a talented player who also does some solid work on the defensive end.
42. Salim Stoudamire: I've always been a fan of Stoudamire and think he could turn into an Eddie House type sparkplug off of the bench. The key difference though is that Eddie is a great locker room guy whereas Salim doesn't seem to bring much to the table in that department.
43. Craig Smith: An undersized big man who could start but probably shouldn't, Smith would help almost any team off of the bench.
44. Kwame Brown: For all of his faililngs, Kwame is actually a solid enough defensive player. Unfortunately, he just doesn't seem to like basketball and he can't be counted on to catch the ball on offense, let alone score.
36. Eduardo Najera: Najera's adds toughness and some range off of the bench.
45 Jannero Pargo: Pargo had a breakout season but I'm still not a huge fan. Still, he's a viable option for backup PG minutes.
46. Brent Barry: He's only got a couple of years left but Barry is still a great weapon to have coming off of the bench.
47. Sam Cassell: While he was very annoying to watch at times in the playoffs, most teams could still do a lot worse than having the Alien as their backup PG.
48. Ryan Gomes: Gomes's problem isn't that he's a tweener, it's that he isn't able to use his in-between game to create mismatches. He's not going to blow past many PF's nor is he really going to post up SF's.
49. Paul Millsap: If Millsap could add some of Gomes' SF skills to his repertoire, he's be a hell of a player. As it is, he's a great big man off of the bench but he can't shoot and turns the ball over too much.
50. Sebastian Telfair: Point guards always take longer to mature and I still think Telfair has a place in the league. If he could settle into a backup spot in Toronto or Atlanta, he could flourish.

Posted by SoulHonky at 02:45 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The mad season is upon us and it's time for GM's to open up their checkbooks and force undeserved millions upon some lucky players. Meanwhile, other quality players will be forced to settle for scraps (or the MLE). It's the cruel world of NBA finances (if you can call making 1 - 5 million dollars a year to play hoops "cruel". Here's my list of the top free agents (figuring in talent as well as possible contract offers).

The Elite
1. Josh Smith: An improving offensive player and elite defensive force, Josh Smith is going to be an impact player on both ends of the court for years to come.
2. Monta Ellis: A young scoring guard who also is showing a knack for being a team leader, Ellis will be the player who helps lead the Warriors (or whomever he signs with) into the playoffs.
3. Elton Brand: Brand is a better player right now than Smith or Ellis but his injuries and age have him down a couple of notches. Still, he's the type of player who could turn a playoff team into a title contender.
4. Andre Iguodala: Iggy is probably better served as a second star but I've thought the same thing about Paul Pierce for a while too. I think he'll improve yet again his season and prove himself to be a true franchise player.
5. Luol Deng: Deng needs to bounce back from last season but he's a great talent who can be an impact player on both ends of the floor. However, he doesn't seem like a team leader at all.
6. Gilbert Arenas: Gil is arguably the best player on this list but he's looking for a second max contract and I don't think many players are worth that. Gil isn't worth it and his injury issues the last couple seasons make him a risk, which moves him down to #6.
7. Ben Gordon: I know I'm one of the few people who watch the NBA who still believe Ben Gordon could be an All-Star talent but he's young and is a great scorer. He's probably shown less the 75% of his abilities in Chicago and should have a breakout season should he lands in the right situation.

The Key Role Players 

8. Andris Biedrins & 9. Emeka Okafor
Biedrins and Okafor are two young, talented, defensive-minded bigs who could help a lot of teams improve immediately. Biedrins seems to be improving more than Okafor so he's ranked higher. On the other hand, I don't think he's worth a max contract which some people are saying he might get.
10. Corey Maggette: Corey is a brilliant offensive player but his defense is lacking, as is his decision making. He could take a team like Chicago or Toronto to the next level but he's not for everyone. I think there are a lot of coaches who would have struggled with him like Mike Dunleavy Sr. did. Granted, most wouldn't go as for as benching him in favor of Quinton Ross but still...
11. J.R. Smith: Smith has attitude issues, seems like he'd rather forego even running back on defense let alone actually playing it, and could stand to improve his playmaking skills but he's also beyond talented and could be an elite level player if he got his head on straight. He has the potential to be the best player on this list and odds are that the team signing him won't have to pay for that potential so it's a good gamble.
12. James Posey: The perfect role player, Posey defends and can hit the open shot.
13. Kelenna Azuibuike: My man. I've been driving the Azubuike bandwagon for a while now and would love to see him on the Celtics. He can defend, score, and (best of all) should come ridiculously cheap. There's no better bargain on the market.
14. Mickael Pietrus: He has the potential to be the James Posey for the next decade. He can defend, loves the spot up three, and would benefit from getting out of Don Nelson's wacky rotations.
15. Josh Childress: Another Posey-esque role player, Childress is just missing something for me. He's a good player but he just seems to disappear too often for my liking. He'll likely end up getting overpaid.
16. Carl Landry: Overlooked because of Luis Scola's play, Landry could give 'Buike a run for the Best Bargain crown. He's a strong PF with a better than expected offensive game. He's a legit 4th or 5th starter.
17. Nenad Krstic: Krstic has the potential but now he's been banged up and he's a finesse big man, which definitely aren't in vogue after Pau Gasol's Finals performance.
18. Dikembe Mutombo & 19. Alonzo Mourning & 20. Michael Finley: Three wily vets who keep helping out their teams, these guys would be prime additions for almost any contender who is looking to secure their bench. They aren't the best long term investments but they could be the difference between first and second place.

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:42 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Day 1 of the 2008 free agency market saw a big winner and a big loser. The winner was the Clippers who added an elite point guard and put themselves into the thick of the playoffs picture out west. The loser was Corey Maggette who was hoping for a raise but instead will now have to take a pay cut. Because the Clippers renounced Maggette's rights and now have signed Davis, there's no way that they can or will agree to a sign and trade. With that possibility gone, there's only a few teams that can Maggette more than the MLE and I doubt any of the able teams are going to be willing to pay Corey what he was hoping for. The one team that might make it happen is Golden State but I just don't think, with half of their roster floating around as free agents, if they would really be willing to spend that much on Corey.

So what does that mean?

It means that Corey's loss is about to become some contenders gain. If Corey can't get paid, you'd think he'd want a shot at winning (which he hasn't done much of in his career). The Celtics have made an offer out to Maggette but personally I'd rather wait for Posey. If we can't re-sign James, I'd rather split the money between a good big man and a cheaper swingman. Corey is a hell of an offensive player but he struggles on defense and I think it's important to have someone who can body up LeBron on the bench.

So where would the best fit be?

Phoenix could use a small forward but they'd probably be better off looking for someone who could help out defensively. Utah might have the personnel to mask Maggette's issues but I can't imagine Jerry Sloan is going to want to put up with Corey's less-than-cerebral game. San Antonio wouldn't be bad but, again, Maggette might be an issue on the defensive end. I could see a lot of open drives to the hoop after Manu flops and Maggette misses his rotation. The Spurs seemed hesitant to go after Maggette last year (for Brent Barry and Beno Udrih) and I don't think anything really changed with Corey over the past season.  Detroit might be an interesting fit but I'd think that Corey would want to be a starter since he didn't seem thrilled in the 6th man role in Los Angeles (then again, backing up Tayshaun Prince is a lot different than sitting behind Quinton Ross). The knocks out Houston as well.

The perfect place for Corey Maggette to go could be Toronto. Anthony Parker could grab the tougher defensive assignment and Chris Bosh and Jermaine O'Neal would be backing him up. The only other team that I think could be as good a fit would be Dallas if they do indeed deal Josh Howard. But I can't see Corey waiting around for that to happen.

Can Bryan make it happen?

Posted by SoulHonky at 05:02 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

With the Nets clearing room to acquire LeBron James in 2010, it is only a matter of time before Vince Carter is shipped out of the swap. The question is, where will he end up? There aren't a lot of teams that will be willing to take on his huge contract and even fewer that will be able to offer up anything of value in return. But seeing as all Richard Jefferson brought back was a project (Yi Jianlian), maybe the asking price won't be as much as many would expect. Still, the key to any deal is a contract or contracts that run less than two years and a good-to-great young prospect whose rookie contract doesn't end before 2010.

As for the Celtics, a Ray Allen for Vince Carter deal is somewhat interesting but we don't really have any young prospects to offer. Also, if I'm shaking up the chemistry and dealing Ray Allen, I'd rather do it to get a little younger. Vince is a better talent than Ray but I'm not sure he's a better fit.

The 11 most likely destinations seem to be: 

1. Portland Trailblazers: This is Portland's deal to turn down. They have Raef Lafrentz's expiring deal and a boatload of young talent to offer up. Vince could play the 3 and give the Blazers a legitimate shot to win the West alongside Jerryd Bayless, Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Greg Oden.

2. Detroit: The Pistons could deal Rip Hamilton and Amir Johnson for Vince. The Pistons add a star player to team with Rodney Stuckey and Tayshaun Prince (should he not get dealt) while the Nets put together a Devin Harris/Rip Hamilton backcourt which should be very appealing to LeBron.

3. Denver: Marcus Camby and a sign & trade of J.R. Smith (4 years, around 16 million) would cover the cost of Vince. The Nets get a big man who'll be a valuable trade chip next season as both a player and an expiring deal as well as a promising and cheap 2-guard prospect to team with LeBron. With a backcourt of Iverson, Carter, and 'Melo, maybe the Nuggets won't have to ever improve their defense.

4. Philadelphia 76ers: The Sixers have cap space and could give the Nets immediately relief but I'm not sure they would be interested in Vince. They, like the Sonics, might rather stick with their young core rather than add an aging swingman. If the Sixers are going to make a run at a veteran, I'd bet on Elton Brand.

6. Washington: The Wiz could package Antonio Daniels and Etan Thomas along with youngster Nick Young and Oleksiy Pecherov in order to get Vince. I just don't know if Young and Pecherov are nearly enough to make the deal worthwhile. Adding more picks doesn't help any because I can't imagine a squad with Agent Zero, Vince, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison wouldn't be one of the best teams in the league. (Although it would also put Washington way over the luxury tax)

7. Minnesota Timberwolves: Like the Sixers, I can't imagine the Wolves are that interested in adding Vince (and I can't imagine that he has any interest in going to Minnesota) but a deal of Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal and Corey Brewer for Vince and fodder (Mo Ager or Josh Boone) would work. 

9. Golden State Warriors: The Warriors could make an offer but since they're already trying to re-sign Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins, I can't imagine they are looking to add a huge contract like Vince.

10. Sacramento Kings: The Kings could offer contracts (Kenny Thomas and Shareef Abdur-Rahim) and Spencer Hawes. They could have sweetened the deal on draft day by adding their pick but I don't think Jason Thompson is going to interest Rod Thorn. Of course, they already have Ron Artest and Kevin Martin so I'm not sure they'd be interested.

11. New York Knicks: The Knicks have Stephen Marbury's expiring contract as well as David Lee and Danilo Gallinari so anything is possible. The question is whether or not they too are in a cap clearing state of mind, hoping to land LeBron or if D'Antoni just wants to add talent now.

Posted by SoulHonky at 06:24 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

While I liked the Raptors deal, they really should have gone with the Gerald Wallace for TJ Ford deal. Wallace would be the perfect SF to team with Bargnani and could salvage Andrea's career while the Raptors also could have held onto their pick and perhaps grabbed someone like Roy Hibbert, Donte Green, or Nicolas Batum.

Toronto Raptors
The Good: Nathan Jawai comes over to be the new backup big man for Toronto.
The Bad: Jawai never comes over and Jermaine O'Neal gets injured. Chris Bosh gets more and more frustrated.
My Guess: I'm not holding my breath on Jawai and while I like Jermaine O'Neal in Toronto, I just don't think he's going to be good enough to really make much of a difference. They still are a notch below the cream of the crop.

Philadelphia 76ers 
The Good: Mareese Speights is the next Al Jefferson.
The Bad: Mareese Speights is the next Robert Traylor.
My Guess: I don't mind the Speights pick. The Sixers might have wanted to look to trade down or grab Batum in order to work a deal with Portland or San Antonio but if no trade was out there, it makes some sense to take a flyer on the talented but underenthused Speights. It's about 40/60 against him ever working hard enough to fulfill his potential but he should, at the very least, be a servicable big body off the bench for the next five years.

New York Knicks 
The Good: Danilo Gallinari blossoms into a great all-around player, kind of like a rich man's Mike Dunleavy Jr.
The Bad: Like his countrymate Bargnani, Gallinari struggles to find his niche and ends up being a Vladimir Radmanovic type.
My Guess: I really didn't like this pick for the Knicks. Gallinari is a player whom you have to build around. He's a 'tweener forward and requires a Gerald Wallace or Josh Smith type alongside him to cover up his defensive issues. The Knicks don't have that and may never get it. Danilo has potential but I think there were a number of prospects with higher ceilings or would have been better foundations for a rebuilding team.

New Jersey Nets
The Good: Yi Jianlian lives up to the hype and becomes a great running mate for Devin Harris and Vince Carter. Brook Lopez, Ryan Anderson, and Chris Douglas-Roberts all become the type of players that LeBron James wants as a supporting cast.
The Bad: Lopez is soft and only a slight upgrade from Jason Collins, Ryan Anderson is Kirk Haston, and CDR's unorthodox style wows the fans... in Europe. LeBron actually learns to appreciate Soulja Boy's music.
My Guess: Brook Lopez should be a Bogut/Kaman level player for me; a person with solid skills who can put up good numbers but probably shouldn't be in your team's core if you want to win. Chris Douglas-Roberts should pan out to be a solid shooting guard off the bench. He'll likely be sitting next to Yi who I'm just not sold on. Ryan Anderson will be a rich man's Scalabrine at best for New Jersey. My biggest issue with the Nets is that they ended up getting less for Richard Jefferson than Indiana got for an aging Jermaine O'Neal. Seeing that the Kings wanted Jason Thompson, I really think they would have been down with my proposed Artest, #12 for Jefferson, #21 deal. I thought the Nets really could have made some noise this offseason but after draft night, I'll be surprised if they can work another big deal to add any talent. I'm not sure they make the playoffs next season.

Boston Celtics
The Good: The C's grabbed two superb talents with question marks. JR Giddens will hopefully get his head on straight since he'll be around KG, Pierce, and Ray Allen while Bill Walker recuperates and blossoms into a James Posey type player. Semih Erdeh gets to tell his family that he was drafted by the NBA champs.
The Bad: JR Giddens doesn't get his head on straight and the C's waste a roster spot on a malcontent who makes people pine for the days of Tony Allen. The C's wants Bill Walker to play overseas but he refuses, forcing the Celtics, who don't want another rookie taking up a roster spot, to waive him. He goes to another team and blossoms. Thinking they are now best friends, Semih Erdeh puts the Big Three in his fave 5 and calls them night and day.
My Guess: Giddens develops into a useful role player but never completely shakes his personality issues. The Celtics hold onto Walker but he doesn't do much next year. He becomes a solid role player but his knee issues prevent him from becoming more than that.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:55 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

I don't know what is worse: the Mavs losing their pick in the lousy Jason Kidd deal or the fact that they now might give Desagana Diop the full MLE in order to pry him away from the Nets.

Dallas Mavericks
The Good: Shan Foster becomes a solid role player, feeding off of Jason Kidd and Dirk Nowitzki. The Kidd/Dirk combo comes together and the Mavs make a little run in the playoffs.
The Bad: Mavericks fans watch and wonder what might have been if they had kept Devin Harris and drafted one of the avaiable talents (Donte Greene, Darrell Arthur, etc.) at 21. The Mavs are first round fodder yet again and Jason Kidd starts muttering something about wanting to go to a contender.
My Guess: Kidd settles into Dallas and the team improves but it still isn't enough to make fans forget Devin Harris. At least four players taken after 21 will make Mavs fans cringe, knowing that they could have had them. Shan Foster does well in the D-league but doesn't improve any and is out of the league soon.

Houston Rockets
The Good: Donte Greene helps the Rockets now by being a dead-eye shooter who makes a living off of Ming and McGrady's kickouts. Joey Dorsey learns from Dikembe Mutombo and becomes a defensive monster who complements Carl Landry and Luis Scola. Maarty Leunen helps out a D-league team.
The Bad: Donte Greene's lack of defense outweighs his offense and he doesn't work on his game, becoming just a jump shooter. He pans out as a poor man's Tim Thomas or a sane but equally ineffective Eddie Griffin. Nicholas Batum and Darrell Arthur (noth of whom Houston had at one point during the draft) develop into better players. Dorsey never amounts to anything. Leunen can't even help a D-league team.
My Guess: Greene becomes a solid player but does indeed focus too much on his jumpshot. While he could fall into the trap of being a Dennis Scott-type player, I think Rick Adelman helps him develop into a poor man's Clifford Robinson who teams with Shane Battier to be a solid combo at the 3/4. Dorsey finds his niche as a role player who can step in when Yao goes down in the future but he's not a reliable NBA starter. Maarty Leunen plays overseas.

Memphis Grizzlies
The Good: OJ Mayo proves that all of the hype was right and is the best player in the draft. Darrell Arthur proves that all of his critics are wrong and plays like a lotto-talent and people laugh about how they got Arthur and Javarris Crittenton (and backup big man Marc Gasol) for soft Pau Gasol. The Grizz trade Mike Conley and Darko for a big man and the Crittenton, Mayo, Gay, Arthur foursome begins to come together as a team to watch in the future. Jaric blossoms as a sixth man and Antone Walker gives the team veterean leadership.
The Bad: Conley and Mayo don't work well together and neither player is able to blossom because of it. Rudy Gay spends the year moping since the two guards are monopolizing the ball and Darrell Arthur never amounts to anything but a Kwame Brown-ilke tease. Jaric is fine with sitting around and making money he can spend on his new bride while Antoine pouts all season.
My Guess: Conley has to go. I don't see him meshing with Mayo and the Crittenton/Mayo combo makes more sense anyway. Jaric is a solid backup so Conley and Antoine's expiring deal should be enough to get a solid big man. If they can dump Darko in the deal, all the better. The focus should be on Rudy Gay and OJ Mayo as the core. I'm not sold on Arthur developing into anything better than Drew Gooden or worse than Hakim Warrick but he should be a solid sixth man. As it is, the Conley/Mayo backcourt will be an issue and nobody will benefit from it. The Grizzlies have pieces now but they are Clipper-esque in the way that their talent isn't going to translate into wins.

New Orleans Hornets
The Good: The Hornets owners use the money they made off of selling the #27 pick to sign a veteran shooting guard.
The Bad: The Hornets owners pocket the money and the Hornets have nobody to fill the void at the 2 guard spot (and if Peja goes down, the hole becomes even bigger).
My Guess: The Hornets have been throwing around money and still have Chris Paul to re-up so I can't imagine that the owners are interested in opening up the wally for a high profile 2-guard this offseason. On the bright side, there are a lot of solid, cheaper 2-guards available this offseason so perhaps the Hornets can add a cheap talent to hold down the 2-guard spot with Mo Peterson.

San Antonio Spurs
The Good: George Hill becomes a Bobby Jackson like backup for the Spurs and helps spell Tony Parker. Malik Hairston can deliver spot minutes at the SF. James Gist wows the crowd with pre-game dunks before slipping into his suit and sitting behind the bench.
The Bad: The draft night question of "Who is George Hill?" isn't answered and Jacque Vaughn still manages to hold onto a key spot in an NBA rotation. Malik Hairston and James Gist ride the pine in the D-league.
My Guess: Hill seems to have some potential but both guys seem like career end of the bench players. I'd be surprised if in the near future, people won't look back at this draft and see Darrell Arthur and Donte Greene at 28 and 29 and then wonder who the hell George Hill is and why did he go before those two.

Posted by SoulHonky at 03:39 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)