Can Danny: DRAFT DAY!
The hardest draft to peg in years, the 2010 draft has been the cause of many wasted hours for me. I've tried to do final mock drafts but I can't find the right trades to me. When I tried to make one without trades, I found it infuriating because certain picks lead to situations in which a team pretty much HAS to deal their pick (or a key player on their team.
I got midway through a mock with trades but it was just taking too long to figure out good deals for both teams. I started again without trades but once I got to the 2/3's point, I realized that the Wolves should probably go with DeMarcus Cousins over Wes Johnson because the odds are better that they can get a solid swingman later in the draft.
Of course, Cousins going #4 leaves Wesley Johnson at #5 and I just can't see the Kings being happy with that. They already have Omri Casspi and Donte Greene at the SF and I'm not sure if a Tyreke Evans/Wesley Johnson backcourt would be able to keep up with quicker guards. There's some talk of Greg Monroe going #4 but I don't really see him as being much better than the recently departed Spencer Hawes - both guys have potential, neither guy will reach it. Gun to my head, I'd have the Kings take Johnson but then that just leaves the Warriors deciding between Al-Farouq Aminu and Monroe. Well, there's also Ekpe Udoh but I kind of still loosely subscribe to the "name value theory" that my friend and I came up with in college. There are just some guys that you can tell won't make it in the NBA and a name like Ekpe Udoh doesn't seem like a name that announcers will be tossing around in a few years. Also, I'm not a fan of shot blocking, defensive bigs with weak lower bodies which prevent them from banging with legit bigs. If my bigs can't defend in the post, I'd rather just go with the Magic attack and start a small forward at the 4; what I lose in less than two weakside blocks a game, I'll make up with a legit shooter/mismatch on the offensive end.
In the end, what I've figured out about this draft is that I'm just not thrilled with it. Are there some possible sleepers at the end of the first round and in the second? Yes. Am I confident that I can peg them? Not really. On top of that, the teams that have the toughest picks to figure out (the mid-lotto picks) have lousy rosters. The Warriors are at the beginning of a purge and I think it's actually a good idea. Even if they get nothing but cap space or expiring deals for Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins, it's not THAT bad. Sure, they sold for way less than value but at least they'll be clear of those contracts and can start a building plan that isn't mired in wasted money. If Warriors think they've got it bad, they should look at the Pistons - they can't even give away their players. The Pacers have loads of expiring deals but probably will be unwilling to use any of them to add a veteran. The Hornets are in the unenviable position of needing to add talent or potentially lose their franchise player via free agency in the new future... except if they add any more money, the owner will go bankrupt and there won't even be a near future. And then there's the Clippers. I mean, why bother?
So I guess to end this rant, I'll just do a "Gun to the Head" mock draft. No trades, no worrying about reaches or not. If I was GM of these teams and there was a gun to my head, who would I take?
1. Wizards: John Wall
2. 76ers: Evan Turner
3. Nets: Derrick Favors
4. Timberwolves: DeMarcus Cousins - They are looking to deal Jefferson and I think there will be better swingmen than bigs available at the Wolves later picks.
5. Sacramento Kings: Al-Farouq Aminu - I like his ability to potentially play the 4 ala Josh Smith, Thad Young, Gerald Wallace. The Kings aren't going anywhere so they can wait on this project. As for the name theory, I'm nervous but I kind of like Al Aminu.
6. Warriors: Wesley Johnson - Warriors will be THRILLED if they get this lucky.
7. Pistons: Cole Aldrich - They want toughness and that's what Aldrich brings. He won't be great but he'll fill the middle.
8. Clippers: Luke Babbitt - This team might not be much defensively but Baron, Gordon, Babbitt, Griffin, Kaman should be nice offensively. Although, IF I was doing trades, I'd push for Kaman for Deng, Hinrich, and #17. The Bulls swap Deng for Kaman (clearing space for LeBron) and give up #17 in order to dump Hinrich, who is a decent backup to Baron. Actually, he'd be the replacement because I'd probably look to deal Baron and #8 for Eddy Curry and Danilo Gallinari or Wilson Chandler. (Disregard my "why bother?" from earlier because, clearly, I bothered.)
9. Jazz: Ekpe Udoh - They might be better off trading down and grabbing a Larry Sanders type a little later but Udoh's weaknesses might actually make him a decent complement to the short but bulky Paul Millsap.
10. Pacers: Avery Bradley - They're going to have to reach for one of the point guards. Bledsoe is more of a pure point but I like Bradley's scoring here better and think Obie could mold him into, at worst, a scrappy backup who can step up in key moments. (Hopefully, he'll be able to rein in his offense unlike Nate Robinson.)
11. Hornets: Ed Davis - If anything is going to get this kid to reach his potential, it'll be running with CP3. He's not a great complement to Emeka Okafor but I was think the Hornets might be able to work out a deal with Minnesota, swapping Okafor and contracts for Jefferson and Ryan Gomes's partially guaranteed contracts. Save some money this year, get a better player but bigger money in the future.
12. Grizzlies: Greg Monroe - A Monroe/Thabeet frontcourt could be great or could be bust central.
13. Raptors: Patrick Patterson - They probably would have preferred Monroe but Pat Pat isn't a bad consolation prize and should be able to put up some nice numbers on the sure to be horrific '10-11 Raptors.
14. Rockets: Larry Sanders - A reach here but he's a decent backup/complement to Yao and Scola. Also, there's something about the name "Larry Sanders" that makes me think of a guy who'll be a lifelong Rocket.
15. Milwaukee Bucks: Damion James - He can defend and hit the three and is tough. Just seems like a Skiles-type player and he might be able to play a small power forward alongside Ersan Ilyasova. I wouldn't be surprised if he quickly earns crunch time minutes over Maggette or Chris Douglas-Roberts. A reach over Paul George, Luke Babbitt, or Xavier Henry but I like his fit on the Bucks. I'll probably be stunned that I actually typed this when I read it in an hour but it's how I feel right now.
16. Timberwolves: Paul George - Things work out perfectly for the Wolves who nab the best big man and a very good SF prospect in George. Even if the Bucks took George, there would still be some nice swingman options at this pick.
17. Bulls: Kevin Seraphin - If they can't dump this pick, they'll want to stash a player overseas. Seraphin seems like the best of the foreign options.
18. Thunder: Luke Babbitt - The Thunder probably want a big man but they can afford to take the best player available here since they have the #21 pick as well. They don't need another shooting guard so Xavier Henry isn't an option and Babbitt has the size that he could potentially play some stretch four (and maybe make Jeff Green available in a trade for a more traditional low post big man.) Worst case scenario, he's not a bad role player and guy who could spell Durant yet still knock down the trey.
19. Celtics: Eric Bledsoe - Much like a drunk, hot girl at a bar who is inexplicably into me, I loved nate Robinson but I didn't trust him for a second and new that the whole thing could devolve into chaos at any second. The C's need a better backup point guard and I think Bledsoe fills that need. Also, he played alongside John Wall last year so I think he should be able to get some minutes on the floor with Rondo.
20. Spurs: Xavier Henry - A big man might make more sense in the short term but, let's be honest, none of these available bigs are getting the Spurs anywhere closer to the Finals. If they want a legit big man, they can deal Richard Jefferson's expiring contract and/or Tony Parker. Henry will be able to play some minutes at the three and, in the long term, joins George Hill, Tiago Splitter, and DeJuan Blair as the future of the Spurs.
21. Thunder: Solomon Alabi Hassan Whiteside was an interesting option but the Thunder already have their headcase project in BJ Mullens. It was between Orton and Alabi and I think Alabi's skillset might be a bit better for the Thunder.
22. Trailblazers: Willie Warren - I'm a supporter of Jerryd Bayless but I think the Blazers might want another point guard or tweener option here. Eric Bledsoe would be ideal but Warren, Jordan Crawford, and a number other names could make for interesting complements to Brandon Roy. I'm gonna stick with Warren here since he looked good freshman year as a supporting player and that's exactly what he'll be in Portland.
23. Timberwolves: James Anderson - The Wolves probably won't keep the three picks and might want to stash someone overseas but this is a team that needs talent and that's what Anderson is. The man can score and if the Wolves do indeed move Corey Brewer, he could find himself starting alongside fellow rookie Paul George.
24. Hawks: Gordon Hayward - The Hawks run was nice but they might want to try to sell high on Josh Smith and just sell Marvin Williams period. I could see a deal with Toronto working out. At this point, I'm not sure who the Hawks go after since they need so much. Even though they already have Marvin, they might as well take the best player available and stop the Gordon Hayward freefall.
25. Grizzlies: Terrico White - Jordan Crawford is a possibility but I think White has the best shot at running the point and could be a nice complement to OJ Mayo (who I don't think the Grizzlies should deal.) Looking at their first two picks (Monroe, White), it's obvious why the Grizzlies are looking to deal. They are in the nether regions of this year's draft.
26. Thunder: Tibur Pleiss - There's almost no way that the Thunder keep all three picks (they'll probably try to move up) but if they do stand pat, they'll look to stash someone overseas and this Pleiss guy sounds as good as anyone.
27. Nets: Jordan Crawford - This late in the draft, the Nets can afford to roll the dice on a guy with upside. The question is whether it's Crawford or Stephenson. Crawford might not be the pick, simply because he became famous by dunking on LeBron James in James's own summer camp and LeBron might not want to have to hear about it every day in practice. Stephenson, however, is supposedly a world class knucklehead. For now, I'll go with Crawford for his potential to be instant offense off the bench.
28. Grizzlies: Hassan Whiteside - Since they seem down on Thabeet, the Grizzlies can deal him and have Whiteside as their new project du jour. At this point in the draft, there's no way that Chris Wallace will be able to turn down Whiteside's potential and athleticism.
29. Magic: Elliot Williams - The Magic could be looking for a new shooting guard with JJ Redick being a free agent and Vince Carter being a bum (who might be shopped since he's essentially an expiring contract.) Again, Lance Stephenson is an option, as are other tweeners like Dominique Jones or Armon Johnson but I think Williams might be the best choice.
30. Wizards: Daniel Orton - Funny how that works out. Orton ends up with former teammate Wall and his size should be a nice complement alongside Aundray Blatche or Javale McGee.
